Moldova at the Crossroads: The Political Economy Behind Europe’s Next Enlargement Test

For more than three decades, Moldova has stood somewhere between geography and geopolitics, between a Soviet inheritance and a European ambition. Today, as Chişinău edges closer to the European Union, the country’s journey offers a revealing test case for whether the EU is truly prepared politically, institutionally, and economically to absorb new members in an era defined by war, shifting power balances, and internal fragmentation.

Author: Szilárd Szélpál

The story is familiar to anyone from our region: Europe opens a door in a moment of crisis, and small nations must run toward it before that opening narrows again. Moldova’s opportunity came in 2022 when, as the war in Ukraine shattered assumptions about European security, Brussels granted candidate status to both Kyiv and Chişinău. As Dr. Kálmán Mizsei explains, this was less a technocratic decision than a geopolitical response, an act of solidarity designed to anchor the EU’s vulnerable eastern flank. Yet symbolic gestures do not build states, and they certainly do not reform them.

A Political Economy Problem at the Heart of Accession

Moldova’s path highlights two structural conditions for successful EU enlargement. First, candidate countries must demonstrate what Brussels politely calls “maturity”, which in practice means credible rule-of-law reform and the ability to generate sustained economic growth. Second, the EU itself must carry out its own long-postponed transformation so it can manage an enlarged political and economic union.

On the Moldovan side, the greatest challenge lies in its economic stagnation. Growth over the last years has been painfully sluggish, held back by war-related shocks, weak investor appetite, and chronic infrastructural isolation. A country with a large diaspora and a small domestic market cannot rely indefinitely on remittances; it needs a growth model, not survival mechanisms.
Brussels’ proposed Growth Package, co-designed with Chişinău, marks a first attempt at this. But as Dr. Mizsei notes, Moldova requires something more ambitious: deep structural liberalisation, real incentives for productive investment, and energetic infrastructure reforms — roads, energy connections, air links —that reconnect Moldova with the European economic system.

This is where the country’s political economy collides with its geopolitical position. Moldova is attempting Western-oriented reforms while contending with the lingering distortions of Russian influence, from the subsidised gas regime in Transnistria to targeted funding for pro-Kremlin political actors. Economic reform is therefore inseparable from security reform.

Inside the EU: The Harder Reform Begins in Brussels

If Moldova’s challenge is domestic capacity, the EU’s challenge is institutional courage. As the interview makes clear, Europe’s enlargement machine is built on a system no longer fit for a 35-member union. Decisions still rely heavily on unanimity, making any major initiative vulnerable to the whims, or political tactics of a single government.
The irony is not lost in Eastern Europe: Moldova’s accession talks cannot formally proceed because Hungary is blocking Ukraine’s process, and Brussels refuses to separate the two. What began as solidarity in 2022 has hardened into procedural interdependence.

And yet, deeper reform remains politically radioactive in the EU. Eliminating vetoes, revising the size and role of the Commission, and creating mechanisms for suspending the voting rights of obstructive governments are all widely discussed but rarely acted upon. The proposal for “staged membership”, where new states enter the EU without full voting rights is gaining traction, but it raises existential questions. What is the Union: a political community, a shared market, or a geopolitical alliance?

For Moldova, the answer matters. If Europe chooses a multi-speed, multi-tier future, Chişinău might join earlier, but as a second-class member until rule-of-law and economic reforms mature.

The Transnistria Variable

No discussion of Moldova’s political economy is complete without examining Transnistria, a breakaway region sustained for decades by Russian energy subsidies and opaque economic structures.
The interview underscores a paradox: politically, Transnistria is entrenched and authoritarian; economically, it is increasingly dependent on Western markets. More than 80% of its exports already go to the EU.

The question is not whether Moldova can integrate Transnistria — it eventually will — but under what political conditions. The region’s current governance model is incompatible with the EU’s democratic requirements. Brussels may someday accept a Cyprus-style workaround, yet most member states remain wary after the lessons of 2004.

The Politics of Popularity

For all the structural complexities, Moldova’s European project ultimately depends on maintaining domestic political support. President Maia Sandu’s extraordinary electoral record demonstrates both public aspiration and political fragility. Her government has survived not on populism but on credibility, crisis management and diaspora support. Yet credibility must now be matched with results: visible reforms, economic improvement, and institutional stability.

If Moldova wants to be a member of the European Union by 2030, as Sandu hopes, this will require not only administrative discipline but also political courage, and a bit of good fortune.

Europe’s Test Comes from Its Smallest Aspirant

In the end, Moldova’s accession is less about Moldova than about the European Union deciding what it wants to become. The war in Ukraine has forced Europeans to rediscover the language of strategy, but not yet the practice of it.
Enlargement is no longer a technical process, it is Europe’s primary geopolitical instrument.

And Moldova, with its fragile institutions, unresolved territorial question, and aspirations for normalcy, may become the case that pushes Brussels to finally reform itself.

Whether that reform happens will determine not just Moldova’s future, but the future of Europe’s eastern frontier.

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Cover photo credit: Gemini